3×
TQQQ Backtest Lab
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Path dependence visualized

TQQQ looks amazing.
Until you start in 2000.

A research dashboard comparing QQQ with hypothetical daily-reset 3× Nasdaq-100 strategies across the dot-com crash, the financial crisis, and the modern technology boom.

Important: TQQQ launched on February 9, 2010. Every pre-inception TQQQ result shown here is a hypothetical simulation, not an actual fund return. Results depend on fees, financing assumptions, tracking error, taxes, liquidity, and execution.
Final value
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Calibrated 3× from selected start
Maximum drawdown
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Peak-to-trough decline
Longest underwater
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Time below a previous high
Recovery date
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Recovery from maximum drawdown
Start date

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Portfolio growth

Selected starting date · logarithmic scale
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Selected 3× result

Calibrated synthetic series

Scenario comparison

Exact calculated metrics for the selected starting point

Drawdown from previous peak

How deep—and how long—each strategy stayed below its previous high

Monthly investing from the dot-com peak

Portfolio value versus total contributions

DCA results

Money-weighted outcomes

Model validation since 2010

Actual TQQQ compared with the synthetic models

Validation diagnostics

Overlap-period tracking statistics

Calendar-year returns

From the dot-com-peak scenario

Expense-only model

3 × benchmark daily return − TQQQ expense ÷ 252

Shows the daily-reset mechanism with fund expenses but without explicit financing drag.

Financing-adjusted model

3 × benchmark daily return − expense − 2 × DFF − spread

Uses the effective federal funds rate as a financing-cost proxy for the additional exposure.

Historical-fit model

Applies the average post-inception residual between actual TQQQ and the financing-adjusted model to the full simulated history.

What is excluded

Taxes, commissions, bid/ask spreads, liquidity stress, market-impact costs, and investor behaviour are not modelled.

About this model

Important context when interpreting the results
TQQQ did not exist before February 9, 2010. Pre-2010 results are simulated daily-reset 3× strategies. The historical-fit series is a model rather than a historical TQQQ price series.
Research tooling only. Not investment advice. A hypothetical backtest can explain mechanics; it cannot reproduce the exact returns of a fund that did not yet exist.